Gilberto Nakamura

The far-reaching consequences of ecological interactions in the dynamics of biological communities remain an intriguing subject. For decades, competition has been a cornerstone in ecological processes, but mounting evidence shows that cooperation does also contribute to the structure of biological communities. Here, we propose a simple deterministic model for the study of the effects of facilitation and competition in the dynamics of such systems. The simultaneous inclusion of both effects produces rich dynamics and captures the context dependence observed in the formation of ecological communities. Our findings reproduce relevant aspects in plant succession and highlight the role of facilitation mechanisms in species coexistence and conservation efforts.

We study the effect of an emerging virus mutation on the evolution of an epidemic, inspired by the appearance of the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. We show that if the new variant is markedly more infective than the existing ones the epidemic can resurge immediately. The vaccination of the population plays a crucial role in the evolution of the epidemic. When the older (and more vulnerable) layers of the population are protected, the new infections concern mainly younger people, resulting in fewer hospitalisations and a reduced stress on the health system. We study also the effects of vacations, partially effective vaccines and vaccination strategies based on epidemic-awareness. An important finding concerns vaccination deniers: their attitude may lead to a prolonged wave of epidemic and an increased number of hospital admissions.