Olavo Menin
Publications:
da Silva V. R., Menin O. H.
Modified SIR Compartmental Epidemic Model with Social Distancing and Hospital Saturation Applied to the COVID-19 Pandemic
2021, Vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 275-287
Abstract
The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in the first months of 2020 overburdened health
systems worldwide. The absence of vaccines led public authorities to respond to the pandemic
by adopting nonpharmaceutical interventions, mainly social distancing policies. Yet concerns
have been raised on the economic impact of such measures. Considering the impracticability of
conducting controlled experiments to assess the effectiveness of such interventions, mathematical
models have played an essential role in helping decision makers. Here we present a simple
modified SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) model that includes social distancing and two
extra compartments (hospitalized and dead due to the disease). Our model also incorporates
the potential increase in the mortality rate due to the health system saturation. Results from
numerical experiments corroborate the striking role of social distancing policies in lowering and
delaying the epidemic peak, thus reducing the demand for intensive health care and the overall
mortality. We also probed into optimal social distancing policies that avoid the health system
saturation and minimize the economic downturn.
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